¿2009 o el año del fermento?

Parece ser que 2009 será un año tipping point, que definirá si la expansión de la globalización proseguirá, si los valores de una sociedad abierta segurián, o si nos replegaremos, nos cerraremos, y los viejos miedos regresarán. Las señales en ambos sentidos son mixtas, pero por ejemplol el mismo poder de apertura que es el internet es ahora usado por el crimen organizado para sus fines. No es facil ser optimista en estos momentos, quizá lo que vale sea prepararse para escenarios malos pero de todas maneras esperando los mejores. Vayamos a ver otras señales:

- John Robb se que las condiciones para el escenario de una Depresión Global están puestas. Luego de leer su preciso diagnóstico lean las noticias de las primeras planas de los diarios mexianos de hoy: Saqueos organizados de silos y trenes en todo el país, donde roban desde grano a electrdomésticos. Y vaya que saben hacerlo: “Los trenes son detenidos por grupos de entre 10 y 20 personas armadas con piedras, machetes e incluso armas de fuego, y vacían sus contenidos en no más de 30 minutos. Se registran casos en los que equipos de individuos perfectamente estructurados detienen y vacían los trenes utilizando equipo semimecánico”, dijo Laura Tamayo, directora de asuntos públicos de Cargill." Robar toneladas de granos y refrigeradores no es robo de hambre, es simplemente explotar las debilidades de sguridad del sistema ferroviario. Esto parece el regreso a la Revolución, solo que ahora no hay ideales, sino solamente la fría ganancia del crimen organizado. Ahora sí, el diagnóstico de John Robb:

THE DEPRESSION SCENARIO IS HERE

The global Depression scenario is now dominant. Here are some of the drivers:

• An utterly complete cognitive regulatory capture of the US government (the advent of the Obama administration has done nothing to change this). Regulatory capture is when monied interests take control, via cultural and mindset transfer, of the government institutions that are supposed to regulate/control them. In OODA terms, this is a loss of control over the critical orientation phase of decision making loops. As a result, a vast looting of the government's coffers is now in process.*
• The D-process (de-leveraging and deflation) feedback loop is now entrenched. This is a neat term developed by Ray Dalio of Bridewater Associates (Barron's interview). The D-process is what happens (rarely) when too much debt is accumulated. Excess debt must be eliminated before growth can return. In the US case alone, excess debt load is $20-25 Trillion. Since global governments are unwilling and/or unable to wipe out the world's creditors (they've been captured), the process will drag on and on. Stimulus and bailout packages, constructed in a way to protect the wealth of the world's creditors/rentiers (looting), won't work. It will only prolong and deepen the failure as the D-process feedback loop intensifies.
• A large number of countries from Japan to Spain to Latvia are already in depressions. These failures will serve as a drag on the entire global system, catalyzing the feedback loops of the D-process.

A global depression, in and of itself, isn't the end of the world. However, it can set in motion unexpected events (black swans) -- as in how the last depression catalyzed WW2. The revisionist effort to this economic collapse isn't likely to be a surge in ideology or nationalism. Instead, we can expect an organic realignment as small groups of people form new primary loyalties (either to violent manufactured tribes or resilient communities), slot themselves into open source movements, and challenge a wheezing group of incumbent nation-states. This is a global guerrilla century.

*NOTE: It's even worse than it appears. Here's an example of how terribly flawed Wall Street analytical modeling is. I suspect we now know what the people of Rome felt when things began to fall apart (they were likely apathetic and confused due to a reality distorting sphere of government spin).