Feliz 2011

Tiempo que no pasaba por aquí, pero vale la pena regresar para desear un feliz año nuevo, nuevas cosas vendrán, y espero estar más seguido aquí para comentarlas, pero mientras una noticia que causará escalofrios en Corea del Sur, Europea del Este y sin duda producirá ambiciones en otras regiones. Publica el NYT en línea esta tarde:

Pentagon Seeks Biggest Military Cuts Since Before 9/11

By THOM SHANKER and CHRISTOPHER DREW 4:08 PM ET

The White House ordered the Pentagon to squeeze almost all growth from its spending over the next five years, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said.

Obama el equilibrista

Se acerca la cumbre de cambio climático en Copenhague. Los "analistas" de revistas como Newsweek y Foreign Policy ya habían profetizado que sería un fracaso, pero parece ser que a pesar de la voluntad de los negacionistas y parte de la industria mundial la cumbre será un éxito, por una sencilla razón: el trabajo tras bambalinas de un hombre clave en las negociaciones: Barack Obama. Ha conseguido lo que tres presidentes no han podido desde la cumbre de la Tierra de 1992: involucrar a China e India en compromisos de reducciones de emisiones. El punto clave fue convencer al gobierno chino en su reciente viaje a Asia. Y el acuerdo fue tan bien hecho que la prensa ni siquiera lo notó. Y Obama no solo ganó puntos en cambio climático, sino en el balance de las finanzas mundiales y el espinoso tema de Irán. China y Rusia sienten que son escuchados por Obama, y responden. Algo así no se veía desde hace mucho mucho tiempo... Estos puntos le ayudarán a Obama a concentrarse más en casa, porque la estructura económica de Estados Unidos aun pende de hilos. El NYT reporta hoy que el uso de timbres para obtener comida se ha disparado en Estados Unidos: uno de cada ocho estadounidenses depende de ellas para comer, y lo que es peor, uno de cada niños. Lo que se pensaba como un programa de beneficiencia de último recurso en muchos casos ahora es el único. Una crisis fiscal afirma el historiador inglés Niall Ferguson es lo que comunmente sigue a una crisis económica, y advierte si Obama no actúa pronto al respecto, la ola de deuda ahogará a Estados Unidos. Sus argumentos retoman casos de imperios del pasado, que cayeron presas de sus deudas, que a fin de cuentas paralizaron sus ejércitos y su poder. ¿Qué pasaría si el imperio americano cae? Por lo menos para México nada bueno. Pero aún no estamos en ese escenario, pero que un historiador serio lo considere factible debe hacernos pensar. Obama es inteligente, él seguramente ya lo hace, y su pregunta es: ¿cómo mover la economía sin que el gobierno se endeude más? Dificil respuesta...

Me preocupa Obama... y los locos que los atacan

ABC News comenta como expertos se preocupan por la seguridad del presidente Obama, ya que observan una creciente actividad de los grupos de odio de la extrema derecha. Y además que este odio ha crecido ultimamente en ocasión del debate sobre el sistema de salud pública. Es notorio que alguien haya pegado carteles en Los Angeles con la cara de Obama pintado como si fuera el guasón, simbolicamente una figura muy tenebrosa...

¿Legalizar el consumo de mariguana y cobrar impuestos?

Hoy Juan Enríquez Cabot escribe acerca de abrir el debate sobre la legalización del consumo de la mariguana en México, algo muy saludable y que debe hacerse cuanto antes. Hemos gastado desde hace décadas miles de millones en una eterna guerra contra las drogas, con un alto costo humano, de miles de muertos y un cada vez más enrarecido clima social. Lo más triste es que en México han muerto más personas por el tráfico ilegal de drogas, que por el consumo mismo de estas. California y otros estados, muy inteligentes, ya han legalizado el consumo y planean cobrar impuestos por este... Ya es hora de abrir el debate. Copio del Reforma de hoy:


A principios del 2006 Los Ángeles contaba con cuatro dispensarios de mariguana médica. Ha de haber habido epidemia de alguna enfermedad, porque para fines de año había 98 dispensarios autorizados. Asustadas autoridades decidieron instituir una moratoria inmediata sobre este tipo de "consultorios médicos". Pero por corrupción y/o incompetencia incluyeron un pequeño adenda en el decreto que permitía abrir nuevos negocios donde existiera "necesidad médica". Y, oh sorpresa, para fines del 2007 abrieron más de 600 dispensarios de droga. Pa' no hacer el cuento muy largo hoy hay un médico listo y dispuesto a prescribir mariguana por cada 6 mil habitantes (Daniel Heimpel/ LAweekly).

Esto se ha vuelto gran negocio. En algunos periódicos ves más de un centenar de anuncios médicos en cada edición. Un médico te "revisa" y receta por sólo 69 dólares. Puedes usar "medicina" orgánica, de sombra, fumable, en pastilla, en galletas, que viene de Vermont, California, México, Panamá, Afganistán, Colombia, Paquistán, Rusia... Y como el gobierno de California está quebrado, ahora va a imponer un impuesto sobre esta "medicina". Algunos estiman que esto proveerá casi 20 mil millones de pesos de nuevos ingresos.

California es el ejemplo más extremo. Pero ya hay 13 estados en EU que permiten el "uso médico" de mariguana. Y gobiernos estatales y municipales se están beneficiando por impuestos y diversos cobros. Claro, todo tiene un costo. Se estima que la mariguana de hoy es por lo menos cuatro veces más potente que la de los 1970. Y en los centros de tratamiento de adicciones el porcentaje que entra por mariguana ha aumentado de 12 por ciento en 1997 a 16 por ciento en 2007. Mientras tanto, el porcentaje de cocainómanos en tratamiento ha caído al 13 por ciento (NYT, julio 19).

Hay quienes dicen, con cierta razón, que el alcohol causa muchas más muertes, que el tabaco es mucho más adictivo que la mariguana. Que comparado con heroína y cocaína no deberíamos enfocar esfuerzos en combatir esta hierba. OK, iniciemos debate y hagámoslo de manera abierta y expresa. Tomemos una decisión conjunta en México y en EU. Por fin, ¿se vale o no se vale?

Lo que no se vale, lo que es una política idiota, es que en México nos estemos partiendo la mother por parar, a toda costa, el tráfico de mariguana y otras drogas mientras más y más gente se automedica en Estados Unidos. O vamos a tomar en serio esta guerra, y la prohibición de la mariguana y otras drogas, o las vamos a permitir. Lo que no se vale es que el otro Laredo se beneficie a diario, inclusive con impuestos, y nosotros carguemos cada vez más muertitos.

Las 10 películas americanas más polémicas del último siglo

Spitfulcritic enlista las 10 películas más polémicas de los últimos 100 años en Estados Unidos. Hablan de los temas que ya pueden sospechar: política, raza, violencia, religión, sexo... Sería bueno hacer la lista mexicana...

Crece interés mundial por la Luna - y sus minerales

Algo sucede: está arrancando una carrera por la Luna. Hoy la NASA lanzó con éxito la misión LCROSS hacia la Luna, que evantualmente chocará en la superficie del satélite natural de la Tierra, justo como ocurrió hace pocos días - junio 11 - con otra sonda, pero en esta ocasión de Japón, la Selene/Kayuga. Y mientras todo este bombardeo a la Luna sucede se estrena en solo algunos cines de Estados Unidos quizá la mejor película de ciencia ficción desde The Matrix: Moon, una poderosa mezcla entre 2001 Odisea del Espacio y creo que Solaris. ¿¿Qué diablos sucede?? Pues, suceden muchas cosas a la vez...



DailyGalaxy publicó un muy interesante artículo donde detalla como esta película parece estar hablando de un muy posible futuro: usar la Luna como mina, para extraer de esta un precioso mineral que nos daría mucha energía: Helio 3. Copio:

"One of the more interesting films due to be released this summer is a stirring, character-driven movie called Moon, staring Sam Rockwell and Kevin Spacey. Moon, directed by Duncan Jones, the son of the musician David Bowie, is a hardcore science fiction thriller about a lonely helium 3 miner ending a three year stint on the lunar surface...."

Y así es, es muy posible que la carrera actual por la Luna sea por el Helio 3, un mineral que nos daría fusión nuclear limpia. Y también en esta carrera, como explica el artículo está interesada China, lo que promete calentar aún más esta carrera por la futura energía del mundo.

Pero... ¿es ético convertir a la Luna en colonia minera? ¿Debemos destruirla como hemos minado la Tierra en busca de oro, petróleo...? Richard Steiner, profesor de conservación de ecosistemas cree que debemos repensar convertir la Luna en zona de minas. El afirma que no cree que la población del mundo esté de acuerdo en destruir la Luna, y propone que se le catalogue en la lista del patrimonio mundial de la UNESCO, solamente dedicada a la investigación científica, como lo es ahora la Antártida.

El futuro dirá si escuchamos a Steiner, y si no destruímos a la Luna, esta película parece ser una interesante advertencia.

Asesina activista ProVida a médico dentro de una iglesia en Kansas

No es la primera vez que un médico que realiza abortos es asesinado por el fanatismo religioso en Estados Unidos. Pero el asesinato de ayer, dentro de una iglesia contra el Dr. George Tiller es algo inusual. Recibió un gran acoso contra su persona y su clínica, físico y mediático. El foco está ahora puesto sobre Bill O ´Reilly, conductor del canal de cable Fox News, cercano a la derecha republicana. O´Relly acostumbra satanizar a quien critica, sea ONGs que defienden la separación iglesia-Estado como la ACLU o activistas por los derechos por la igualdad de gays. Los tilda de ser parte del tenebroso movimiento "liberal-secular". Es un conductor populista en todo el sentido de la palabra, que tiene buena oratoria, pero llena de demagogía y... odio. Pues la violencia simbólica de su lenguaje se materializó ayer, y es muy posible que haya influenciado al fanático en cuestión. Y no fue poco lo que hizo O´Reilly: dedicó 28 programas a satanizar a Tiller. Andrew Sullivan ha cubierto mucho de este asunto, pero les copio algo que escribió hoy que resume mucho la cuestión:

O'Reilly's "Judgment Day"

Salon's Gabriel Winant profiles "The Factor"'s four-year campaign to demonize George Tiller:

O'Reilly's language describing Tiller, and accusing the state and its elites of complicity in his actions, could become extremely vivid. On June 12, 2007, he said, "Yes, I think we all know what this is. And if the state of Kansas doesn't stop this man, then anybody who prevents that from happening has blood on their hands as the governor does right now, Governor Sebelius."

Three days later, he added, "No question Dr. Tiller has blood on his hands. But now so does Governor Sebelius. She is not fit to serve. Nor is any Kansas politician who supports Tiller's business of destruction. I wouldn't want to be these people if there is a Judgment Day."

More here. O'Reilly demonized Tiller on 28 episodes of his show. I have no doubt his words wil be played endlessly on cable in some kind of hideous irony. This really could be the end to O'Reilly's dangerous, demonizing game.

Por qué el movimiento por el derecho al matrimonio igualitario para gays y lesbianas crece en todo el mundo

Más que un movimiento para que gays y lesbianas se puedan casar con sus parejas (y no ser deshonestos y casarse en matrimonios falsos para ceder a la presión familiar) creo se trata más bien de un movimiento para permitir que seres humanos, personas adultas, decidan libremente con quien se quieran casar, sin que el Estado o las diferentes creencias religiosas tengan que opinar en lo que es una decisión personal e intima. El derecho a casarse con quien uno lo desee es un derecho humano, el número 16 de la Declaración Universal de los Derechos Humanos aprobada por la ONU en 1948.

Y como ustedes quizá sepan, el año pasado la Suprema Corte de California aprobó el derecho de las parejas del mismo sexo a casarse. Se casaron casi 20 mil parejas en unos meses. Después, la derecha, impulsada por las iglesias católica y mormona, impulsaron un referendum estatal, donde el 51% de la población aprobó que se prohibiera en la constitución californiana el matrimonio del mismo sexo. De nuevo la corte tuvo que decidir si esa prohibición era legal, y esta semana, el martes 26 de mayo anunció que la decisión de los votantes era legal, pero que también lo eran los casi 20 mil matrimonios del mismo sexo realizados anteriormente. Horas después del fallo de la corte sucedió algo inusual, que es a lo que se refiere Larry King en el vídeo de arriba: dos abogados, específicamente los que fueron rivales en el caso Gore versus Bush del 2000 se unieron, en nombre de dos parejas del mismo sexo, para demandar ante la Suprema Corte de Estados Unidos el fallo de la corte de California. Por primera vez, si la Suprema Corte acuerda, un caso sobre matrimonio gay sería debatido a ese nivel. Los dos abogados, antes rivales dicen que este no es un tema de derechas o izquierda,s sino de decencia, derechos humanos e igualdad ante la ley.

Recordemos que el matrimonio del mismo sexo ya era legal desde hace cinco años en Massachusetts, y en pocos meses recientes ha sido legalizado en Vermont, Connecticut y Iowa. A nivel internacional es ya legal en Canadá, Bélgica, España, Holanda, Suecia, Noruega y Sudáfrica. Otros países y territorios - como la Ciudad de México - tienen leyes que reconocen uniones del mismo sexo, pero aún no el matrimonio civil. ¿Por qué este movimiento, como lo fueron la abolición de la esclavitud en el siglo XIX y el del voto a las mujeres en el siglo XX, parece imparable? Porque trata sobre una idea poderosa: la igualdad ante la ley. Y están siendo vencidos el prejuicio, el miedo y la ignorancia. Como dice Jonathan Chait en The New Republic con una fuerte lógica:

Good ideas don't always defeat bad ideas, but they usually, over time, defeat non-ideas.

Celibato: la crisis de un tabú sacude a Benedicto XVI

El sacerdote Alberto Cutié

Cada vez más y más sacerdotes salen de la iglesia católica por querer tener una pareja e hijos. Recientemente fue el caso del hoy presidente de Paraguay y en Florida el del Padre Alberto Cutié, muy famoso por hablar bien en público, ser bien parecido y salir en televisión. Una revista de la farandula lo sorprendió con una mujer en la playa, e ipso facto su obispo le quitó su parroquia, donde era muy popular, tanto que sus feligreses protestaron por que haya sido destituído. ¿Qué pasó al final con este joven y talentoso sacerdote enamorado de una mujer? Pues sucede que se anuncia hoy que eligió no romper con su novia, pero sí con la iglesia católica, y prefirió ser sacerdote en la iglesia episcopal, la versión de la iglesia anglicana en Estados Unidos, y que no obliga al celibato. Esto será un fuerte golpe mediático para la iglesia católica en ese país, especialmente dentro de la comunidad hispana, que a su vez valora tanto la familia y el tener hijos... Lo interesante de este caso es que el Padre Cutié reafirmó publicamente su vocación profesional pero a la vez el amor por su pareja. Copio del reporte de AFP:

"El religioso, que admitió estar "enamorado" y se negó a pedir perdón "por amar a una mujer", había pedido tiempo a sus superiores para "reflexionar" sobre su futuro.

El "padre Alberto", como se lo conoce popularmente en Miami, decidió finalmente continuar la relación con la mujer, abandonar la Iglesia Católica y "convertirse en miembro de la Iglesia Episcopal donde continuará su sacerdocio", informó esta entidad.

Acompañado por su novia, y mostrándose por primera vez en público con ella, Cutié participó este jueves de una ceremonia en la Catedral de la Trinidad, en el centro de Miami, donde se produjo su ingreso formal a la Iglesia Episcopal."

Sea lo que sea, me alegra ver que la verdad y el amor triunfaron, y el miedo y la represión siguen perdiendo, como seguiran haciéndolo. Solo vean ahora el reto que le llega a Benedicto XVI desde Africa, donde apenas acaba de regresar este año. Copio de Religión Digital:

LOS CURAS DEL PAÍS SE PONEN EN HUELGA PARA APOYAR A LOS DESTITUIDOS Y ARREMETEN CONTRA ROMA

• El Vaticano destituye a dos obispos centroafricanos por tener mujer e hijos

José Manuel Vidal (RD).- Para los africanos, tener mujer e hijos es una bendición del cielo. Una mentalidad de la que participan curas y obispos, que aceptan el celibato, porque no tienen más remedio, pero, en la práctica, muchos de ellos mantienen una familia con total naturalidad. Pero Roma sigue apostando por el celibato obligatorio y no admite excepciones. Por eso, acaba de destituir a monseñor Paulin Pomodimo, arzobispo de Bangui, y a monseñor François-Xavier Yombandje, obispo de Bassangoa y presidente de la Conferencia episcopal de la República Centroafricana.

Parece ser que Benedicto XVI va a tener que tomar decisiones, que conociéndolo solo le harán más daño a la iglesia católica. Y pensar que muchos apóstoles eran casados. Les recomiendo un libro: Liberar el celibato, de Donald Cozzens, quien es sacerdote y profesor de Estudios Religiosos de la John Carroll University. Dice la contratapa:

El celibato obligatorio para los sacerdotes católicos de rito latino ha sido la norma durante casi novecientos años.... Cozzens analiza el celibato como fuente de poder y como carga impuesta, como llamada espiritual y como don del Espíritu. Enfocando el celibato obligatorio desde una perspectiva histórica, examina las experiencias antiguas y contemporáneas de clérigos casados en las iglesias orientales y en la iglesia de rito latino.Ha llegado la hora, concluye, de liberar al celibato de la prescripción canónica, para que así sea lo que debe ser: un agraciado estilo de vida para algunos de los ministros de la iglesia, no para todos.

Iowa, el tercer estado en legalizar el matrimonio gay en Estados Unidos

Y Oprah habla con una de las primeras parejas que por fin tuvieron los mismos derechos que las demás a casarse con quien quieran. Da gusto ver que el valor de la igualdad poco a poco avanza en el mundo. Hace dos siglos fue la lucha contra la esclavitud, después fue la lucha por el voto de la mujer, hoy es el derecho de toda persona a casarse con quien ame. Iowa es el tercer estado en reconocer la dignidad de las parejas de cualquier sexo, después de Massachusetts y de Connecticut.

Sencilla explicación de la epidemia de influenza H1N1, y las consecuenias de la desidia del PAN

Lo siento, está en inglés, pero este hombre podría ser un buen profesor por explicar de forma tan sencilla y clara temas tan complejos.

Además, él aboga porque se duplique el presupuesto del CDC - que ya tiene 7 billones de dólares al año. Pero comparado con los 700 billones del Pentágono, afirma, quizá sea mejor darle unos pocos más al CDC para defender a Estados Unidos mejor que lo que lo pueden hacer algunos misiles.

A lo que me pregunto si Calderón por fin pedirá en su presupuesto que se aumenten los fondos para la ciencia. Desde 1999 la OMS le pidió al gobierno mexicano que invirtiera en laboratorios de diagnóstico de alto nivel, y no se hizo. Ahora pagamos las consecuencias... Ahora, por ello, no podemos producir la vacuna que urgentemente necesita el país ante el nuevo virus de influenza. El gobierno del PRI que estaba en 1999 ya iba de salida, pero ya llevamos nueve años de gobiernos del PAN, que coordinan la política nacional de salud. ¿Por qué Fox y Calderón no decidieron aceptar las recomendaciones de la OMS? ¿Por qué debemos importar no solo Tamiflu, sino ahora las vacunas necesarias para sobrevivir?

¿Cuál es el origen del virus de influenza A H1N1?

El New York Times escribe hoy sobre el tema. Y creo que pronto sabremos que en México, no fue el lugar donde se originó. Copio:

Virus’s Tangled Genes Straddle Continents, Raising a Mystery About Its Origins

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

The flu that is moving through humans appears to have a combination of genes from two normally separate sets of pigs, those from the Americas and from Eurasia, scientists say.

However, it is unknown how those pigs met, and there is not yet any genetic proof that this particular flu was ever in a pig.

And, despite current fears, some geneticists feel this strain may not be very deadly. As it circulates in humans, however, especially in the Southern Hemisphere winter, it could pick up dangerous human flu genes.

The only way to be sure, they say, is to wait and see. But world health authorities hope to have a vaccine soon that will put a stop to the flu’s circulation.

The first conundrum — a swine-type virus that has not yet been found in swine — is readily explained, scientists said. It was first identified in humans just last week, when Canadian and American authorities realized that the flus they had sequenced from sick people in California, Texas and Mexico were the same. No one ever tested pigs for it before, and those tests are just getting under way.

Such quirks are common in disease genetics. In the 1980s, for example, it was not known that the AIDS virus was sweeping Africa because the illness was first found in a few gay men in California, and it took years to find the source virus in chimpanzees.

Now, scientists say, the hunt is on for what is jokingly being called Pig Zero.

“No one that I’m aware of has swabbed pigs for this yet,” Dr. Juan Lubroth, chief of veterinary investigations for the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, said Wednesday.

An international team, including Dr. Lubroth’s investigators and some from the World Organization for Animal Health, is in Mexico, planning to go to La Gloria, the location of the first known case involving a human, 5-year-old Édgar Hernández.

Mexican investigators have already visually inspected herds of pigs at the vast factory farms there, Dr. Lubroth said. But a flu strain that sickens humans may not bother pigs, just as the H5N1 avian flu kills chickens but usually not ducks.

It will take some time to swab the pigs’ snouts, fly the samples to a world-class laboratory and sequence it. And even then, Dr. Lubroth said, the La Gloria pigs may not be the key, so his team will scour Mexico’s library of routine swine swabs for matches. The only viral sequences on public databases thus far are human.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced last week that the new virus had pieces of North American swine, bird and human flus and of Eurasian swine flu. Although rumors questioning that are circulating on the Internet, most geneticists believe it is correct.

It is essentially a blend of Eurasian swine flu and North American swine flu, but Western hemisphere strains have had an avian segment on the PB2 gene for at least 10 years and a human component on the PB1 gene since 1993, said Henry L. Niman, a biochemist who tracks flu mutations. “The original report is correct,” Dr. Niman said of the C.D.C.’s analysis. The rumors, he added in an e-mail message, stem from “someone who really doesn’t know how to analyze sequences (or is being misquoted.)”

It presumably is in pigs somewhere, perhaps in Mexico. The 1918 human H1N1 established itself in pigs by 1930. But, as Dr. Niman pointed out, it could be only in humans now — or even in a ferret.

The next question, said Dr. Robert G. Webster, a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, is: “How did this virus get in? Is Mexico importing swine from Europe?”

While movement of live pigs between Canada, the United States and Mexico for fattening and slaughter is routine, legal movement of pigs across oceans is rare. Pigs carry many diseases, so importation requires expensive tests and quarantines. The only reason to bother would be for breeding, not meat.

Even pig semen is restricted, said Kent Parker, swine facility manager at the University of California, Davis. “The boars have to be tested and the facility they live in has to be authorized,” Mr. Parker said. Frozen semen can transmit blue-ear pig disease, he said. It cannot transmit flu, said a spokeswoman for the National Pork Board.

Peter Daszak, president of the Wildlife Trust, found records showing that Mexico imported two pigs from France in 2007, the United States imported a few from Britain and Ireland, and Canada imported hundreds from Europe. “And surely this isn’t the whole truth,” he said. “There must be a hidden illegal trade.”

While some scientists looking at the virus genome debated its origin, Peter Palese, chairman of microbiology at Mt. Sinai School of Medicine, found cause for optimism about the future. All the pandemic viruses of the last century — the 1918, 1957 and 1968 flus — had a mutation in the gene coding for a protein known as PB1-F2 that is thought to make a virus more lethal. The mutation, he said, is not in the new strain.

Dr. Niman, looking at the same sequences, saw a mutation that, at the same position in H5N1, appeared to speed the virus’s spread in Egypt.

Cerrar espacios públicos, buena lección de la epidemia de gripe española de 1918

Un buen y oportuno post que puso Andrés Lajous en su blog:

¿Por qué es una buena idea cerrar espacios públicos?

"...only drastic action could prevent the spread of influenza throughout the city. Banning public meetings, closing businesses and schools, imposing and absolute quarantine on the Navy Yard and on civilian case--all these things made sense...But Plummer was Lewis's commanding officer. He and Krusen wanted to wait. Both feared that taking any such steps might cause panic and interfere with the war effort. Keeping the public calm was their goal...

The meeting ended with nothing decided except to monitor developments. Krusen did promise to start a mass publicity campaign against coughing, spitting and sneezing. Even that would take days to organize. And it would conflict with the downplaying of danger by Krusen and navy officials...

Meanwhile the Evening Bulletin assured its readers that influenza posed no danger, was as old as history, and was usually accompanied by great miasma, foul air, and plagues of insects, none of which were occurring in Philadelphia...

The next day two sailors died of influenza. Krusen opened the Municipal Hospital for Contagious Diseases to the navy, and Plummer declared, "The disease has about reached its crest. We believe the situation is well in hand. From now on the disease will decrease".

Krusen insisted to reporters that the dead were not victims of an epidemic; he said that they had died of influenza but insisted it was only "old-fashioned influenza or grip". The next day fourteen sailors died. So did the first civilian, "an unidentified Italian" at Philadelphia General Hospital...

Seven days later, on September 28, a great Liberty Loan parade, designed to sell millions of dollars of war bonds, was scheduled. Weeks of organizing had gone into the event, and it was to be the greatest event in Philadelphia history, with thousands marching in it and hundreds of thousands expected to watch it.

Two days after Philadelphia's Liberty Loan parade, Wilmer Krusen had issued that somber statement, that the epidemic in the civilian population "was assuming the type found in naval stations and cantonments".

Influenza was indeed exploding in the city. Within seventy-two hours after the parade, every single bed in each of the city's thirty-one hospitals was filled. And people began dying. Hospitals began refusing to accept patients--with nurses turning down $100 bribes--without a doctor's of a police order. Yet people queued up to get in. One woman remembered her neighbors going "to the closest hospital, the Pennsylvania Hospital at 5th and Lombard but when they got there there were lines and no doctors available and no medicine available. So they went home, those that were strong enough".

On October 1, the third day after the parade, the epidemic killed more that one hundred people--117--in a single day. The number would double, triple,quadruple, quintuple, sextuple. Soon the daily death toll from influenza alone would exceed the city's average weekly death toll from all causes--all illness, all accidents, all criminal acts combined.

On October 3, only five days after Krusen had let the parade proceed, he banned all public meeting in the city--including, finally, further Liberty Loan gatherings--and closed all churches, schools, theaters. Even public funerals were prohibited.

The first temporary facility to care for the sick was set up at Holmesburg, the city's poorhouse. It was called "Emergency Hospital #1"; the Board of Health knew more would follow. Its five hundred beds were filled in a day. Ultimately there would be twelve similar large hospitals run with city help...

In ten days--ten days!--the epidemic had exploded from a few hundred civilian cases and one or two deaths a day to hundreds of thousands ill and hundreds of deaths each day.

The Great Influenza: the story of the deadliest pandemic in history
John M. Barry

1918, la epidemia de gripe española

Un interesante artículo publicado hoy en El País sobre la gripe española nos ayuda a tener perspectiva histórica. A diferencia de 1918 hoy tenemos nuevas herramientas para defendernos de epidemias que entonces no existían: no se conocía el ADN, no había algo como la OMS y mucho menos el internet. Copio:

El fantasma de la 'gripe española'

La pandemia acabó en 1918 con cuatro veces más muertos que la Gran Guerra

JAVIER SAMPEDRO - Madrid - 28/04/2009

La I Guerra Mundial terminó en 1918 con nueve millones de muertos. La gripe española de ese mismo año acabó con la vida de 40 millones de personas. Fue la peor de las tres epidemias mundiales de gripe del siglo XX (1918, 1957 y 1968), y de hecho la peor pandemia de cualquier tipo registrada en la historia. El virus que la causó no venía de los cerdos, sino de las aves, pero era un H1N1, como el actual. El H1N1 era un virus aviar hasta 1918, y fue la gripe española quien lo convirtió en una cepa humana típica.

Los países implicados en la Gran Guerra no informaban sobre la epidemia para no desmoralizar a las tropas, de modo que las únicas noticias venían en la prensa española. La gripe española debe su nombre, por tanto, a la censura de tiempos de guerra, y no a su origen, ya que el primer caso se registró en Camp Funston (Kansas) el 4 de marzo de 1918. Por entonces el virus sólo causaba una dolencia respiratoria leve, aunque muy contagiosa, como cualquier gripe. En abril ya se había propagado por toda Norteamérica, y también saltado a Europa con las tropas americanas.

El primer caso de la segunda oleada mortal se registró el 22 de agosto en el puerto francés de Brest, una de las principales entradas de los soldados norteamericanos. Era el mismo virus, porque los afectados por la primera oleada estaban inmunizados frente a la segunda. En algún momento del verano, sin embargo, se había convertido en un agente mortal. Causaba neumonía con rapidez, y a menudo la muerte dos días después de los primeros síntomas.

En Camp Devens, Massachusetts, seis días después de comunicarse el primer caso ya había 6.674 contagiados. Los brotes se extendieron a casi todas las partes habitadas del mundo, empezando por los puertos y propagándose por las carreteras principales. Sólo en India hubo 12 millones de muertos.

Fue la llegada del virus a los lugares más recónditos la que permitió reconstruirlo hace cuatro años. Johan Hultin, un médico retirado, y los científicos militares al mando del genetista Jefferey Taubenberger, lograron rescatar los genes del virus de los pulmones de una de sus víctimas, una "mujer gorda" que había muerto en 1918 en un poblado esquimal de Alaska, donde el frío había preservado el material particularmente bien.

Se supo así que el virus de 1918 no tenía ningún gen de tipo humano: era un virus de la gripe aviar, sin mezclas. Tenía, eso sí, 25 mutaciones que lo distinguían de un virus de la gripe aviar típico, y entre ellas debían estar las que le permitieron adaptarse al ser humano. Se supo así que el virus de la gripe española se multiplica 50 veces más que la gripe común tras un día de infección, y 39.000 veces más tras cuatro días. Mata a todos los ratones de laboratorio en menos de una semana.

Los grupos de Terrence Tumpey, de los CDC de Atlanta (los principales laboratorios norteamericanos para el control de epidemias) y Adolfo García-Sastre, del Mount Sinai de Nueva York, se preguntaron luego qué mutaciones del virus de la gripe española podían eliminar su capacidad para transmitirse entre personas. Y el resultado es que bastaban dos mutaciones en su hemaglutinina (la H de H1N1); esas mismas mutaciones puestas del revés bastarían para conferir a un virus aviar una alta capacidad de transmisión entre humanos.

La hemaglutinina es el componente de la superficie del virus que reconoce a las células de su huésped. Es el principal determinante de la especificidad del virus (la especie o lista de especies a las que puede infectar). Lo importante no son tanto los números adosados a la H (H5, H1...), sino los detalles de su secuencia, el orden exacto de sus aminoácidos.

Las dos mutaciones clave afectan críticamente a la interacción de la H con sus receptores en las células animales, que pueden ser de dos tipos: alfa-2,3 o alfa-2,6. Los virus de la gripe aviar se unen preferentemente al receptor alfa-2,3, que se encuentra a altas concentraciones en las células del intestino de las aves acuáticas y costeras. Sin embargo, los virus humanos se unen más eficazmente a los alfa-2,6, que se encuentran en el sistema respiratorio de las personas.

La ultraderecha americana contra Obama por su política contra la epidemia de influenza

Es increíble como su argumento se fundamenta en teorías de conspiración para criticar al presidente Obama para proteger la salud de Estados Unidos ante la epidemia de influenza porcina. Se creen con más autoridad que epidemiólogos, y lo más inaudito, quieren hasta quitarle fondos al CDC. El fundamentalismo religioso critiano de ellos disfrazado de política. Afortunadamente ganó Obama, y afortunadamente él es un hombre que cree en la evidencia empírica que da poder a la ciencia, y no en el dogma irracional del fundamentalismo religioso. Y claro todo esto aderezado con un poco de racismo anti mexicano. Copio de TPM:

The GOP chimes in on the White House's reaction to the swine flu outbreak

April 26, 2009, 2:20PM

Forgive me if this is too subtle. It's hard to be over-the-top when parodying the right anymore.

The Republican party chimes in on the White House's reaction to the swine flu outbreak:

Rep. Michelle Bachmann: "I'm concerned that this president is using the reports of a few isolated cases of swine flu in some other country to justify rounding up U.S. citizens and herding them into concentraion camps under the guise of forced innoculations against this disease. There's no reason for people in this country to be afraid of a disease that only infects pigs. The fact that the CDC is hyping this as some sort of a public health menace underscores the danger in allowing that organization to exist. The Republican party wanted to de-fund the CDC, but Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid blocked us from doing that. I strongly encourage the American people to arm themselves to the teeth, not with weapons of course but with information that my office will provide, to fend off any attempts by this president to use this insignificant health matter as an excuse for taking away all of their freedoms."

Glenn Beck: "Am I mistaken or is Swine Flu one of the plagues that the ancient Egyptians used against the Jews? Could this be just one of several plagues that the Pharaoh Obama will unleash against the American people? I..I..fear for my country. I......don't want to see MY country......consumed by the pestilence of this president's Islamo-fascist communist Muslim agenda and the diseases that it will unleash."

Rush Limbaugh: "Here it is, folks. The nanny government is going to move in and tell you that you have to go get shots with dangerous vaccines against some made-up disease. 'Swine flu? Swine flu?' That was something that Jimmy Carter made up back in the 70s to try to distract everyone from his foreign policy disasters and blowing up the economy. There's no such thing, folks. It's a joke. And, even if there was, if you choose to live in a place where some disease from Mexico can come into your neighborhood and infect you and your family, you only have yourself to blame for it. For anyone that dumb, I say 'tough luck.' You should have known better. Stop looking for the government to save you from yourself."

Sen. Mitch McConnell: "I'm not sure we need to be spending money on disease prevention right now when we've got a massive deficit. Spending taxpayer dollars to stop some Mexican disease is going to put a heavy burden on our children and grandchildren for decades to come. This is not the right time to be throwing money at a minor health problem. America has the best health care system in the world and I have faith that it can easily handle a few cases of the flu. If anything, we should be taking a careful look at this and dealing with it in Congress in a bi-partisan manner. There's much to discuss and I welcome that discussion with all of the members of both houses of Congress in the coming months. But, there's a lot on the congressional agenda right now and it will have to wait until more important issues have been cleared from our plate."

El timeline de la epidemia de influenza porcina en México

James Wilson, experto en epidemiología puso en su blog (muy bueno) este timeline acerca de la epidemia de influencia porcina en México, desarrollado por la consultoria en seguridad médica Veratect, de la cual él es el jefe científico. Ha hecho un gran trabajo, que parece no fue atendido a tiempo por el CDC y el gobierno mexicano. Copio:

Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events

Introduction

At Veratect, we operate two operations centers based in the United States (one in the Washington, DC area and one in Seattle, WA) that provide animal and human infectious disease event detection and tracking globally. Both operations centers are organizationally modeled after our National Weather Service using a distinct methodology inspired by the natural disaster and meteorology communities. Our analysts handle information in the native vernacular language and have been thoroughly trained in their discipline, which include cultural-specific interpretation of the information. We are currently partnered with 14 organizations that provide us with direct ground observations in 238 countries. We are a multi-source, near-real time event detection and tracking organization with years of experience in this discipline.

March 30

Veratect reported that a 47-year-old city attorney for Cornwall was hospitalized in a coma at Ottawa General Hospital following a recent trip to Mexico. Family members reported the individual voluntarily reported to the hospital after gradually feeling ill upon returning from his trip on 22 March. The source stated that the hospital did not know the cause of illness. The case was reportedly on a respirator and awaiting a blood transfusion, but sources did not provide symptoms or a suggested cause of illness. This information was available in our web portal to all clients, including CDC and multiple US state and local public health authorities, however no one had connected this man’s illness with a potential crisis in Mexico.

April 2

Local media source Imagen del Golfo reported that state health officials recorded a 15% increase in disease over an unspecified period in the highland areas of Veracruz, which includes La Gloria. The increase was primarily due to higher levels of upper respiratory disease and gastroenteritis. Specifically, officials noted an increase in pneumonia and bronchial pneumonia cases. Health officials attributed the increase to seasonal climate changes.

April 6

Veratect reported local health officials declared a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in La Gloria, Perote Municipality, Veracruz State, Mexico. Sources characterized the event as a "strange" outbreak of acute respiratory infection, which led to bronchial pneumonia in some pediatric cases. According to a local resident, symptoms included fever, severe cough, and large amounts of phlegm. Health officials recorded 400 cases that sought medical treatment in the last week in La Gloria, which has a population of 3,000; officials indicated that 60% of the town’s population (approximately 1,800 cases) has been affected. No precise timeframe was provided, but sources reported that a local official had been seeking health assistance for the town since February.

Residents claimed that three pediatric cases, all under two years of age, died from the outbreak. However, health officials stated that there was no direct link between the pediatric deaths and the outbreak; they stated the three fatal cases were "isolated" and "not related" to each other.

Residents believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to "flu." However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.

Local health officials had implemented several control measures in response to the outbreak. A health cordon was established around La Gloria. Officials launched a spraying and cleaning operation that targeted the fly suspected to be the disease vector. State health officials also implemented a vaccination campaign against influenza, although sources noted physicians ruled out influenza as the cause of the outbreak. Finally, officials announced an epidemiological investigation that focused on any cases exhibiting symptoms since 10 March.

This information was available in our web portal to all clients, including CDC and multiple US state and local public health authorities.

April 16

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) indicated that an unspecified number of atypical pneumonia cases were detected at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Reforma, Oaxaca State, Mexico. No information was provided about symptoms or treatment for the cases. NSS Oaxaca reported that rumors were circulating that human coronavirus was spreading at the hospital; sources did not provide any response to these statements from the hospital or health officials.

Laboratory samples were sent to Mexico City for analysis; results were expected to be released sometime next week. According to NSS Oaxaca, health officials had intensified preventive measures aimed at mitigating further spread of the disease. Sources reported that the SSO also implemented a sanitary cordon around the hospital.

This information was pushed to CDC and several US state and local public health authorities in an email alert notification provided by Veratect.

April 20

Veratect was urgently asked to provide access to the VeraSight Global platform on 20 April by a client in the US public health community, and indicated they had received word from their counterparts in Canada that Mexican authorities had requested support. This client speculated whether notification of all southern U.S. border states’ public health authorities should be done and were confused as to why the CDC had not issued an advisory. Veratect contacted the CDC Emergency Operations Center to sensitize them about the situation in Mexico. CDC indicated they were already dealing with the crisis of recently detected H1N1 swine influenza in California and possibly Texas.

April 21

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) confirmed two adults died from atypical pneumonia at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico. One of the cases was a 39-year-old female; the other case was an adult male of unspecified age. After the deaths, the hospital established a quarantine in the emergency room due to initial concerns that avian influenza was responsible for the cases. However, the SSO subsequently stated that neither avian influenza nor coronaviruses, including that which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), were the source of infection. Additionally, the SSO denied the cases represented an epidemic. According to local sources, the SSO indicated that the atypical pneumonia cases were caused by an unspecified bacterial pathogen and were treatable with antibiotics. Sources indicated a total of 16 additional patients exhibited signs of respiratory infection; none of these patients exhibited complications.

Veratect sources indicated the 39-year-old female was treated at the hospital for five days before dying on 13 April. This case was reportedly immunocompromised; in addition to acute respiratory symptoms, she also had diabetes and diarrhea. The SSO contacted 300 people that had been in contact with the woman; sources stated that between 33-61 contacts exhibited symptoms of respiratory disease, but none showed severe complications. The SSO characterized the incident as an "isolated case;" they noted that over 5,000 cases of pneumonia occur annually in Oaxaca.

Another local source reported the SSO launched surveillance measures in the former residential areas of the two fatal cases and in other targeted geographic areas. No additional information was provided regarding the second fatal case at the hospital.

Veratect reported that the Oaxaca State Congress Permanent Committee on Health had undertaken an investigation into the cases. The committee inspected the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso on 20 April. The director of the medical school at the University Autónoma "Benito Juárez" de Oaxaca (UABJO), along with other medical academics, publicly requested that national health authorities investigate the cases of atypical pneumonia. No information was provided indicating that national health authorities plan to investigate the matter. The director of the medical school also requested the SSO furnish evidence showing that the cases were negative for avian influenza, SARS, and other severe pathogens; his request was echoed by readers commenting on an online user forum.

Veratect also reported the National Ministry of Health issued a health alert due to a significant increase in influenza cases during the spring season in Mexico. Officials indicated that there have been 14 influenza outbreaks throughout the country. The most heavily affected states are Baja California, Chihuahua, Distrito Federal (Mexico City), Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Veracruz. Local case counts were not provided.

Officials stated that 4,167 probable cases of influenza, 313 of which were confirmed, have been reported throughout the country in 2009. Case counts for suspected and confirmed influenza cases have tripled in 2009 as compared to the equivalent time period in 2008. The National Institute of Respiratory Diseases recorded two fatal cases of influenza in 2009, but specific dates and locations were not provided.

Health officials stated they were unsure precisely why the incidence of influenza had increased. However, they believed the increased presence of influenza B, in combination with influenza A, was a contributing factor. In response, officials advised anyone exhibiting influenza symptoms to avoid self-medication and seek medical care immediately. Officials had also enhanced epidemiological surveillance for influenza. Lastly, health officials had focused efforts on providing antiviral medications and influenza vaccinations to the most vulnerable segments of the population. According to the Mexican Ministry of Health, 44.3% of the national population was vaccinated against influenza in 2005-2006.

Veratect sensitized the International Federation of Red Cross who in turn requested broader access be provided to the Pan-American Disaster Response Unit (PADRU). Veratect moved to notify several US state and local public health authorities, providing the caveat the situation in Mexico remained unclear due to pending laboratory results. Veratect reached out to World Health Organization (WHO) operations, informing them the Veratect team was on an alert posture and available for situational awareness support. They indicated they and their subordinate, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) were now aware of the situation but had no further information. Veratect also extended contact to the British Columbia Center for Disease Control and offered assistance in tracking the events in Mexico. All contacts indicated laboratory results were pending.

April 22

Veratect reported the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) indicated 16 employees at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico had contracted respiratory disease. However, the SSO denied these cases were connected to the recently identified cases of atypical pneumonia at the hospital. No information was provided indicating how many employees work at the hospital or whether the number of respiratory disease cases was higher than average. The source reported that "fear" persisted among hospital physicians concerning the possible presence of a deadly bacteria or virus circulating in the hospital. One anonymous hospital employee criticized hospital management as "unfair" for not providing clear information regarding the first fatal atypical pneumonia case.

An additional source reported the cause of the atypical pneumonia cases remained unknown; it stated that bacteria or virus could have caused the cases. In contrast, according to an 18 April report, the SSO indicated that the atypical pneumonia cases were caused by an unspecified bacterial pathogen and were treatable with antibiotics. The reason for this discrepancy was unclear at this time.

The Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), a national health entity, had now joined the SSO in responding to the cases; reports did not indicate the Mexican National Ministry of Health had joined in the response efforts. The IMSS extended the sanitary cordon surrounding the hospital. Patients exhibiting flu-like symptoms would be sent to the hospital’s epidemiology department for further study. IMSS instructed physicians to hospitalize respiratory disease patients immediately if they meet certain standards for severity of symptoms. Lastly, the hospital’s emergency room would remain closed for an additional 15 days so that cleaning and preventive disinfection could be carried out.

Veratect also reported the Mexican Ministry of Health indicated that an "unusual" outbreak of laboratory-confirmed influenza caused five deaths from 17-19 April 2009 in Mexico City, Mexico. The deaths occurred at the following three hospitals: el Hospital de la Secretaría de Salud (2), el Institute Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias (2), and el Hospital Ángeles del Pedregal (1). According to unofficial sources, the fatal case count was higher than that provided by officials. There were currently 120 influenza cases hospitalized throughout Mexico City. National health officials indicated that influenza vaccines were sold out in Mexico City and that they were attempting to acquire additional supplies of the vaccine.

At this point, the Mexican Health Secretary reportedly stated there was an influenza epidemic in Mexico City and throughout the rest of the county. In response to the cases, the official stated health authorities would launch a public awareness and vaccination campaigns. He stated that 400,000 vaccines would be administered, primarily to medical staff; it was unclear whether these efforts would be focused on Mexico City or any other geographic area. Health officials also ordered the provision of special masks, gloves, and gowns for medical personnel that were in contact with influenza cases.

A total of 13 fatal cases of influenza were reported in Mexico City in the past three weeks. However, several other media sources reported that the 13 deaths were recorded since 18 March 2009; the reason for this discrepancy was unclear. Sources reported a total of 20 fatal cases of influenza throughout Mexico over the disputed timeframe. The other cases were located in San Luis Potosí (4), Baja California (2), and Oaxaca (1). The Director of Epidemiology at the National Center for Epidemiological Surveillance and Disease Control characterized the outbreak as "quite unusual."

No information was provided indicating that the strain of influenza itself was unusual. Rather, several sources indicated that it was "unusual" to record this many fatal influenza cases during this time of year. Influenza cases normally peak from October to February, while these cases had occurred during Mexico’s spring season.

Canada announced a national alert for travelers returning from Mexico with respiratory disease, beginning a campaign of public media announcements. Potentially ill contacts were identified returning from Mexico and isolated in Canada. Internet blogs begin to spin up. CDC indicates concern about the events unfolding in Mexico. Veratect sensitizes the US community physician social network managed by Ozmosis.

April 23

Veratect reported the Secretary General of the Oaxaca Ministry of Health Workers Union confirmed that a doctor and a nurse from the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso in Oaxaca, Oaxaca State, Mexico were under observation for suspected "atypical" pneumonia. This contradicted statements made by the Oaxaca Health Department (SSO) on 22 April that 16 hospital employees contracted respiratory disease, but none of the cases exhibited atypical pneumonia.

The union official stated that a review by the Oaxaca State Board of Medical Arbitration indicated that the hospital faced serious difficulties caused by overcrowding; he stated that overcrowded conditions created a "breeding ground" for the spread of various epidemics. According to the official, the hospital has 120 beds but the number of patients hospitalized had at times surpassed 240.

Other sources reported that the Department of Livestock, Fisheries, Rural Development, and Feed (SAGARPA) declared on 20 April that Oaxaca, Mexico was free of avian influenza. SAGARPA stated that authorities should remain vigilant in monitoring for the disease among birds.

Canadian local health officials stated that a Rouge Valley resident with influenza-like illness was being monitored at Scarborough Centenary Hospital in Scarborough, Ontario. The precaution was being taken in accordance with an alert issued by the Ministry of Health asking hospitals to watch for severe respiratory illnesses in travelers returning from Mexico. Despite the warning, the Ministry had indicated that evidence is not suggestive of a novel pathogen or influenza strain, according to the source. A representative for the Rouge Valley Health System stated that this case is being monitored related to the alert. The source did not specifically indicate symptoms or that the person had traveled to Mexico. No additional information regarding the case, including age or health status, was reported.

The source stated that hospital employees were asking any patients admitted to the hospital if they had recently traveled to Mexico, which according to the source was a popular tourist destination for Durham-region residents.

Additional Canadian sources indicated Southlake Regional Health Centre officials treated a patient with influenza-like illness (ILI) who recently returned from Mexico. The Ministry of Health recently notified Southlake, in addition to health units across the country, that an outbreak of severe respiratory disease was affecting areas of Mexico; ill travelers returning from that region with ILI symptoms were encouraged to be monitored. Sources did not provide any specific information about the case, including age or current treatment status. Information regarding the individual’s travel to Mexico was also not provided, including destinations and duration of time in country.

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) noted that an Ontario resident who returned from Mexico on 22 March experienced severe respiratory illness, but has fully recovered and was not considered connected to the current situation. Veratect recently reported on 30 March that a public official from Cornwall, Ontario was hospitalized with an unknown illness following a trip to Mexico; however, it is unclear if the cases are related, or if this was the case referenced by PHAC officials.

Veratect assesses the situation and notes the following:

Affected areas:

Oaxaca, Distrito Federal, San Luis Potosí, Baja California

Distance to nearest international airport:

• Oaxaca airport, located approximately 150 miles from Reforma, is connected via non-stop air traffic to Houston
• Mexico City (Distrito Federal) airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to many cities in the US, Canada, Europe and Latin America, with the most outbound traffic to Los Angeles, Frankfurt, Houston, Dallas, and Amsterdam
• San Luis Potosí airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to Dallas and Houston
• Mexicali airport in Baja California is connected via non-stop traffic to Los Angeles
• Veracruz airport is connected via non-stop air traffic to Houston

Large mass gatherings:

Semana Santa (April ~April 3 – 12, Palm Sunday to Easter Sunday), which is Mexico’s second largest holiday. Mexico’s population is approximately 90% Catholic, which results in substantial population migration patterns during this time period. For instance, in Ixtapalapa (in Mexico City), one million people visit for Semana Santa. Other well-known sites for the holiday include Pátzcuaro, San Cristobal de las Casas (Chiapas), and Taxco. Veratect notes substantial population migration has just occurred that could facilitate the spread of respiratory disease.

Civil Unrest:

The recent surge in organized crime and drug-related violence in Mexico, including homicides, kidnappings, extortion, and theft, has disproportionately impacted Mexican states along the Pacific Coast and U.S.-Mexico border. This factor may confound situational awareness of respiratory disease in Mexico and contribute to problems in epidemiological investigation and response measures. Baja California is one of five states within this region that currently accounts for more than 75 percent of Mexico's drug-related homicides, and has recorded high levels of drug seizures and police corruption cases. Veracruz, a state with high drug cartel activity in the Gulf of Mexico, has recorded little violence, while the state of Oaxaca to the southwest, recently recorded the assassination of a political party leader. Mexico City, in the center of the country, recently arrested a major drug cartel leader, and recorded few homicides this month. The levels of unrest in Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi, and Tlaxcala, however, are very low, and have not reported a single homicide related to organized crime in the past month.

Veratect issues notification to additional public health authorities in two states. Veratect reaches out to the Pan American Health Organization emergency operations team but is unable to establish contact. Veratect notes no publicly available English language reporting from ProMED, HealthMap, FluNET, CDC, ECDC, or WHO about the unfolding events in Mexico. Many of Veratect’s clients, including Canadian, ask why an alert has not been issued by the US to sensitize their healthcare community.

April 24

Veratect continues to process a dramatic increase in reporting on the situation in Mexico.

WHO requests access to the Veratect system. Veratect is aware of laboratory samples from Mexico are positive for “swine flu” H1N1, a novel virus. World media are now aware of the situation in Mexico. CDC issues a press statement, as does WHO.

Veratect notifies the private US clinical laboratory community and activates a Twitter feed (twitter.com/veratect) to enable more rapid updating of information.

Posibles casos de influenza en Nueva York

¿Cómo se esparce ésto? ¿Estaba en Texax y California y ahora en Nueva York? ¿No será psicosis? ¿O alguien está moviendo cepas de costa a costa? ¿Podría ser terrorismo? Copio de CBS:

Possible Swine Flu Outbreak At NYC Prep School

Department Of Health Officials Testing 75 Students At St. Francis Preparatory School In Queens

New York City health officials say that about 75 students at a Queens high school have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms and testing is under way to rule out the strain of swine flu that has killed dozens in Mexico, CBS station WCBS-TV reports.

The Health Department's Dr. Don Weiss said Friday that a team of agency doctors and investigators were dispatched to the private St. Francis Preparatory School the previous day after students reported fever, sore throat, cough, aches and pains. No one has been hospitalized....

CDC: la epidemia ya no se puede contener

La CDC afirma que ya no se puede contener la epidemia en Estados Unidos, pero... ¿no que solo tienen ocho afectados por el virus? Y en México tenemos ya 60 muertos y se cree mil infectados! Esto suena raro, muy raro. Copio de Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday it was too late to contain the swine flu outbreak in the United States.

CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser told reporters in a telephone briefing it was likely too late to try to contain the outbreak, by vaccinating, treating or isolating people.

"There are things that we see that suggest that containment is not very likely," he said.

He said the U.S. cases and Mexican cases are likely the same virus. "So far the genetic elements that we have looked at are the same." But Besser said it was unclear why the virus was causing so many deaths in deaths in Mexico and such mild disease in the United States.

PD. Analistas creen que si la epidemia crece puede ser un shoch para la economía mexicana, ya de por sí en graves problemas.

Portugal y su exitosa lección sobre descriminalización del consumo de drogas

Glenn Greenwald es un analista del liberal think tank The Cato Institute, y ha escrito un informe sobre la exitosa política de Portugal sobre descriminalización del consumo de drogas. Aquí lo entrevista la revista Reason al respecto, y cómo se podría beneficiar Estados Unidos de una política semejante.

Mientras tanto, hoy el New York Times reporta sobre la mayor visibilidad de personas reconocidas que defienden la legalización del mercado de consumo de drogas. Copio un fragmento:

the signs of change are everywhere, from the nation’s statehouses — where more than a dozen legislatures have taken up measures to allow some medical use of marijuana or some easing of penalties for recreational use — to its swimming pools, where an admission of marijuana use by the Olympic gold medalist Michael Phelps was largely forgiven with a shrug.

Long stigmatized as political poison, the marijuana movement has found new allies in prominent politicians, including Representatives Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, and Ron Paul, Republican of Texas, who co-wrote a bill last year to decrease federal penalties for possession and to give medical users new protections.

The bill failed, but with the recession prompting bulging budget deficits, some legislators in California and Massachusetts have gone further, suggesting that the drug could be legalized and taxed, a concept that has intrigued even such ideologically opposed pundits as Glenn Beck of Fox News and Jack Cafferty of CNN.

“Look, I’m a libertarian,” Mr. Beck said on his Feb. 26 program. “You want to legalize marijuana, you want to legalize drugs — that’s fine.”

All of which has longtime proponents of the drug feeling oddly optimistic and even overexposed.

“We’ve been on national cable news more in the first three months than we typically are in an entire year,” said Bruce Mirken, the director of communications for the Marijuana Policy Project, a reform group based in Washington. “And any time you’ve got Glenn Beck and Barney Frank agreeing on something, it’s either a sign that change is impending or that the end times are here.”

¿Podemos cambiar la educación para ser más inteligentes?

La educación en México, y en mucho del resto del mundo aún está basada en memorizar y respetar las jerarquías académicas, más que producir conocimiento nuevo y procesos de creatividad - la película Dark Matter muestra un poco ese caso, cuando un brillante estudiante chino se enfrenta al despotismo ilustrado de su director de tesis en una universidad estaounidense. ¿Es posible reforma la educación para que deje de ser solo un entrenamiento para obedecer a ciegas lo que diga el superior? Nicholas D. Kristof escribe sobre ello hoy en el New York Times, hablando de los hallazgos de un nuevo libro sobre el tema, que ojalá pudieran leer muchos de los responsables de la educación en México. Parece que en la visita de Obama a México no se habló de educación. Nada de más intercambios o becas. Copio un fragmento del NYT:

If intelligence were deeply encoded in our genes, that would lead to the depressing conclusion that neither schooling nor antipoverty programs can accomplish much. Yet while this view of I.Q. as overwhelmingly inherited has been widely held, the evidence is growing that it is, at a practical level, profoundly wrong. Richard Nisbett, a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan, has just demolished this view in a superb new book, “Intelligence and How to Get It,” which also offers terrific advice for addressing poverty and inequality in America.

Professor Nisbett provides suggestions for transforming your own urchins into geniuses — praise effort more than achievement, teach delayed gratification, limit reprimands and use praise to stimulate curiosity — but focuses on how to raise America’s collective I.Q. That’s important, because while I.Q. doesn’t measure pure intellect — we’re not certain exactly what it does measure — differences do matter, and a higher I.Q. correlates to greater success in life.

Intelligence does seem to be highly inherited in middle-class households, and that’s the reason for the findings of the twins studies: very few impoverished kids were included in those studies. But Eric Turkheimer of the University of Virginia has conducted further research demonstrating that in poor and chaotic households, I.Q. is minimally the result of genetics — because everybody is held back.

“Bad environments suppress children’s I.Q.’s,” Professor Turkheimer said...

Professor Nisbett strongly advocates intensive early childhood education because of its proven ability to raise I.Q. and improve long-term outcomes. The Milwaukee Project, for example, took African-American children considered at risk for mental retardation and assigned them randomly either to a control group that received no help or to a group that enjoyed intensive day care and education from 6 months of age until they left to enter first grade.

By age 5, the children in the program averaged an I.Q. of 110, compared with 83 for children in the control group. Even years later in adolescence, those children were still 10 points ahead in I.Q.

Professor Nisbett suggests putting less money into Head Start, which has a mixed record, and more into these intensive childhood programs. He also notes that schools in the Knowledge Is Power Program (better known as KIPP) have tested exceptionally well and favors experiments to see if they can be scaled up.

Another proven intervention is to tell junior-high-school students that I.Q. is expandable, and that their intelligence is something they can help shape. Students exposed to that idea work harder and get better grades. That’s particularly true of girls and math, apparently because some girls assume that they are genetically disadvantaged at numbers; deprived of an excuse for failure, they excel.