jueves, diciembre 04, 2008

John Robb observa se complican escenarios para México

John Robb es un analista de tendencias en temas de seguridad, y ve que el panorama se complica en general para el mundo debido al fin del Estado Nación y del paradigma de la globalización (libre comercio, capitalismo en tiempo real, alto movimiento de capitales). El poder está además siendo centrifugado debido a la presión de la crisis económica y de los intereses de actores que ganan más con el fin del viejo orden, como terroristas y mafias. En este post de su blog habla un poco sobre la crisis fiscal que se avecina para México, debido al creciente gasto en seguridad por el gobierno y la caída en los ingresos petroleros:

GG RADAR: Early December 2008

Some changes of note:

  • The Mumbai attacks are tied (loosely) to Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) -- an Islamic social system that operates as a state within a state within Pakistan in a way similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is an increasingly classic situation. Non-state group gains strong legitimacy within a weak/hollow nation-state through the delivery of basic services that national government can't, or won't deliver. Non-state group has its own foreign policy, including attacks on foreign nations. Retaliation is nearly impossible, or made extremely complicated, due to the fact that the host nation has sovereignty and will be severely damaged if attacks are made. Host government is too weak/hollow to crack down (Shlok, at the great blog "Naxalite Rage" has more). Something similar to this is at work in Mexico, Colombia, Afghanistan, etc. with narco-guerrillas (it would be worse if they had better programs for social legitimacy).
  • Global Depression watch. As anticipated, the global economic system continues to careen out of control -- made worse by outdated economic ideology, ad hoc policy response, and parasitic actors. On the radar: a food crisis for next year (extensive underinvestment and credit fueled failures in global food production system), China edging towards economic contraction (it's degree of emphasis on infrastructure investment and value-added export industries is unprecedented in history and is therefore extremely brittle) and social instability, a Mexican fiscal crisis (a combination of rapid declines in repatriated income from workers in the US, a collapse in oil production, an expensive guerrilla war in the northern provinces, and a rapid decline in oil prices add up to fiscal failure), and much more (too much to list).
  • The effort to build "resilient communities" is correctly focusing on viral models of propagation. Check out this movie on the first "Transition Cities" conference in the UK -- note the focus on entrepreneurial and cooperative strategies. As the global depression deepens and the system's non-linear motion creates havoc, the need for a self-organizing replacement that can provide structure and long-term wealth creation will become acute.
  • Question: does anyone have any links or papers on potential collapse scenarios for Mexico or China? I'd like to compare notes.

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