lunes, septiembre 10, 2007

Análisis de los ataques a Pemex del 10 de sept 2007

John Robb es uno de los mejores analistas de 4GW, Fourth Generation Warfare, o la Cuarta Generación de Guerra, porque hasta la guerra no es lo que era antes. Y tiene un gran blog llamado Global Guerrillas, y un gran libro llamado Brave New War. Hoy analiza los ataques de esta mañana en la infraestructura de Pemex en Veracruz y Tlaxcala.

Este es mi análisis de los ataques ocurridos en julio, que seguramente fueron realizados por los mismos autores. Yo dudo mucho que el EPR sea el real autor de los ataques. Para la guerrilla mexicana Pemex es una vaca sagrada. Mis apuestas: la ultraderecha mexicana, o la mano de un cada vez más poderoso autocrata sudamericano. Castro está por irse, y a alguien le conviene que México esté débil ante esta circunstancia, y que a su vez eso debilite a Estados Unidos.


More global guerrilla activity in Mexico. Six new attacks by an unknown guerrilla group (an earlier claim by a leftist group was likely a false front) destroyed five PEMEX natural gas pipelines (likely through a timed detonation). 12,000 people were evacuated due to fire risk. This follows on the heals of the July pipeline attack that disrupted operations at 1,200 companies (including Honda, Nissan, and Kelloggs). If the earlier pattern of embedded timer-triggered explosives holds, there will be more explosions next week. Is this the start of the "Breaking Mexico" scenario? The sophistication of the earlier attack (given that it targeted critical valves -- systempunkts) and the ability to repeat the assault (so far, nobody has been caught) indicates that it has the potential to be:

Here's on potential method of how it could happen. Analysis of critical Mexican infrastructure reveals a critical flaw. Due to its history as an oil exporter, nearly all domestic fuels and most of its electricity is generated from oil and natural gas delivered by pipelines radiating from the oil producing region in the southeastern corner of the country. Low tech attacks along a 300-400 mile stretch of pipeline would quickly starve the country of the oil needed to generate electricity and refine fuels (the current system has been inadvertently built to maximize cascading failures across multiple infrastructures if properly disrupted). Further, analysis of the pipeline infrastructure would also quickly reveal junctions and pumping equipment that would be extremely difficult to replace (systempunkts). As we have seen in Iraq, Nigeria, India, Pakistan, etc. these anonymous attacks could be frequent, effective, and nearly impossible to interdict. They would also result in an immediate expansion of black markets for fuels imported from the US, generating a useful feedback loop for continued disruption.

Given the level of gang and criminal violence currently challenging the Mexican state [which has been militarized and thereby converted into a war between the state and non-state groups] for supremacy, there is already a large subset of actors that could quickly seize upon this opportunity. Their access to arms (often much better than the Mexican military) and to sources of income independent of the state's function (smuggling of all types into the US) would allow them to thrive at double and triple digit growth rates as state power began to fail. They also have access to a huge pool of people that would be easily enticed to disrupt infrastructure for a few dollars (enabling the costs inflicted by disruption to top $200,000 for every $1 invested in the activity). In short, the dynamic that is produced would be similar to the models of state failure we have seen elsewhere. It would also be almost impossible to stop once it becomes entrenched.

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