"None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises.
Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born?
The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight."
China ya tiene severos problemas, entrando ya en una severa recesión, a pesar de las maquilladas cifras del gobierno, entre ellas, el valor real de su moneda, el yuan. Y Obama parece que lo sabe, y que no está dispuesto (como lo estaba Bush) a que China siga jugando como quiere con las cifras del tipo de cambio mundial. Su nuevo secretario del Tesoro, Timothy Giethner, habló rudamente al respecto hoy en el Capitolio al acusar al gigante asiático de manipular el valor de su moneda. Esa acción, amenazó, podría merecer sanciones comerciales. China es el país con que el que tiene un mayor deficit comercial Estados Unidos.
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