jueves, noviembre 20, 2008

Analista alemán acierta en su pronóstico económico de 2008 y ahora habla de 2009...

Joern Berninger es un consultor alemán en crisis financieras. El primer vídeo lo subió a You Tube el 12 de enero de 2008. El segundo lo subió el 16 de octubre de 2008. Como se puede apreciar acertó en su análisis del año muy bien. Solamente espero no acierte igualmente en el 2009, por el bien de todos... Y en su blog escribió sobre los errores a evitar ahora mismo, el primero es la típica forma de pensar que el gobierno y las empresas solucionarán todo. Después presenta una lista detallada de errores a evitar, que se pueden leer aquí.

During the last decades most people were subject to the same shared believes created by the same shared ideas which have been distributed by many educational institutions. Let me be very clear: Most of the "nonsense" people apply in their investment and business decisions and recommendations, today, are based on what has been taught by business schools over the last decades. Don’t get me wrong, I am not criticizing people who underwent MBA education, nor do I cristizise business schools. I rather point out that this is one of the underlying problems which we are facing now. Too many people with the same tools and ideas at hand and an inability for flexibility. Individuals which have accepted but never questioned the conditions under which the tools they have learned and apply on a daily basis can now be applied to a very different situation. It has gotten even worse with the growing amount of those people, who have learned to say “yes” and make everybody comfortable, rather than finding the issues and develop innovative new solutions. This financial crisis is very different from anything we have experienced, so far. And so, most likely the conditions and "variables" are different as well. The framework has changed and many of the valuable tools and believes just do not work any longer.

I just come back from a meeting with the leading Spanish business community and I am still shocked about their indifference and persistent hopeless optimism, how I call their attitude of denial. One of the lecturers got it right. The former secretary of treasury Lawrence Summers said: "People are faced with things they avoid, because they are painfull. This Crisis will push them to do those things." Maybe that is the reason why so many are still ignoring what is going on. They continue taking the wrong path. The path of which I believe, it will take them to poverty. Why do I share this with you? Just, to provide you a better understanding for the following list. It is a list of mistakes individuals do, based on the same believes we just discussed above. As such this list does not have anything in common with traditional investing or business strategy. It is an outline of what I believe are the most dangerous thoughts.

For readers of this blog I assume you are most likely a critical person with common sense, yourself. So I apologize, if many of this might not be new but I hope it is comprehensive. Here are my predictions for the most deadly mistakes one can make in this crisis during the next year...

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