2009 o porqué sacaré mi dinero de Citigroup/Banamex

Porque en 2009 la economia global no va a mejorar, sino a empeorar aún más (Japón entró hoy oficialmente en recesión, la semana pasada lo hizo Alemania). Y Citigroup será vendido en partes, una de ellas siendo Banamex. Se especula que Santander lo compre, como conté en un anterior post. ¿Cómo estoy tan seguro de que 2009 será peor que 2008? Nouriel Roubini lo dice. Este profesor de economía en NYU predijo con detalle esta crisis en septiembre de 2006 como reporta el New York Times. Hasta dijo que empresas iban a quebrar. Nadie le creyó. Todo lo que dijo sucedió....

Hoy el profeta ya es escuchado, y publicó este pasado 13 de noviembre su previsión en Forbes, la revista capitalista por excelencia. Y no dice nada bueno para 2009, de hecho afirma que nos cuidemos de quienes dicen que hemos tocado fondo. Copio:

Beware, therefore, of those who tell you that we have reached a bottom for risky financial assets. The same optimists told you that we reached a bottom and the worst was behind us after the rescue of the creditors of Bear Stearns in March; after the announcement of the possible bailout of Fannie and Freddie in July; after the actual bailout of Fannie and Freddie in September; after the bailout of AIG in mid-September; after the TARP legislation was presented; and after the latest G-7 and E.U. action.

In each case, the optimists argued that the latest crisis and rescue policy response was the cathartic event that signaled the bottom of the crisis and the recovery of markets. They were wrong literally at least six times in a row as the crisis--as I have consistently predicted over the last year--became worse and worse. So enough of the excessive optimism that has been proved wrong at least six times in the last eight months alone.

A reality check is needed to assess risks--and to take appropriate action. And reality tells us that we barely avoided, only a week ago, a total systemic financial meltdown; that the policy actions are now finally more aggressive and systematic, and more appropriate; that it will take a long while for interbank and credit markets to mend; that further important policy actions are needed to avoid the meltdown and an even more severe recession; that central banks, instead of being the lenders of last resort, will be, for now, the lenders of first and only resort; that even if we avoid a meltdown, we will experience a severe U.S., advanced economy and, most likely, global recession, the worst in decades; that we are in the middle of a severe global financial and banking crisis, the worst since the Great Depression...