domingo, agosto 12, 2007

La recesión parece ser inevitable para fines de año

Un correo que me llegó y creo puede interesarles. Mientras en las noticias:

- Europa y Asia temen un lunes negro en los mercados.
- Esta recesión ya se veía venir desde 2006.
- En Estados Unidos no creen que la turbulencia ha tocado fondo...

Is A Recession Dead Ahead?
James B. Stack, InvesTech Research

WHITEFISH, MONT. - The U.S. economy is now in the sixth year of the fourth longest economic recovery of the past century.

This is when things can go wrong – and usually do.

I wish it weren’t so, and I wish I didn’t have to say it. But today’s economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of 2007. Because the stock market typically leads the economy by several months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street from here on out.

For the most part, we’re in uncharted waters when it comes to the housing sector, and the boom-to-bust unwinding has been underway for over 18 months.

Then there’s the unpredictable Dow Industrials. The DJIA has lost over 400 points since the middle of last week and declining stocks have overwhelmed advacing stocks. That type of negative breadth divergence has occurred only 15 times in 75 years – the majority of which were in bear markets.

Even in July, when the DJIA hit a record high, declining stocks overwhelmed advancing stocks by a 2:1 margin. That ominous divergence has never occurred in the past 75 years of market history.

Divergences are also appearing in major indexes, as the headline-grabbing DJIA has risen over 1000 points in the past five months – but the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has slipped lower.

If that isn’t a flight to quality, I don’t know what is!

As a consequence, I am moving to a full bear market defensive mode.

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